The table gasped at the rarity—a 1-in-30,000-to-1 longshot. Miller slammed his fist on the table, cursing Elias’s "dumb luck."
Elias didn't think about whether Miller was "bluffing." He thought about . He had to call $400 to win a total pot of $1,400.$400 / $1,400 = 28.5%.
As he bagged his winnings, he realized poker wasn't a game of cards played with people. It was a game of people who didn't realize they were just variables in a very long equation.